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We, The Seven Billion

 RAJENDRA P SHARMA                                                                                                                              
A few days back, at the end of October 2011, earth’s population reached 7 billion. This unique moment in human history represents both an achievement and a challenge, and it will have an impact on every single person on the planet.  A world of seven billion has implications for sustainability, urbanisation health services and youth empowerment. However, it also offers a rare call-to-action to renew global commitment for a healthy and sustainable world. Although people are living longer and healthier, huge inequities persist. The current pace of population growth may add about 78 million more people every year — the same as the population of Canada, Australia, Greece and Portugal combined. Gaps between rich and poor are growing, and more people than ever are vulnerable to food insecurity, water shortages and weather-related disasters. Meanwhile, many rich and middle-income countries are concerned about low fertility, declining populations and ageing. 

Whether the people from rich and poor countries can live together on a healthy planet will depend on the decisions we take now. In a today’s world of 7 billion, there are a large number of people now in their reproductive years, 3.7 billion, which means world population will keep growing for several decades. The average life expectancy worldwide has increased by 20 years since 1950, from 48 to 69 years today. Meanwhile, the death rate has steadily declined, as medical breakthroughs and access to health care have saved millions of lives.

The world total fertility rate has declined by nearly half in 50 years from 5 children per woman in 1950 to 2.5 in 2011, albeit with wide country variations. If current trends continue, world population will reach 9 billion by 2050 and more than 10 billion by the end of the century. Fertility levels matter a lot for population management. For example, Germany at 82 million people and Ethiopia with 83 million are now similar in population size. But Germany’s fertility rate is 1.4 children per woman and Ethiopia’s is 4.6. By 2050, Germany’s population will likely decline to 75 million while Ethiopia’s will nearly double, to 145 million.

The impact of population growth can be observed on poverty and inequalities. First, in the poorest countries, extreme poverty, food insecurity, inequality, high death rates and high birth rates are linked in a vicious cycle. Reducing poverty by investing in health and education, especially for women and girls, can break this cycle. Second, youth below 25 years make up 43 percent of world population and 60 percent of the population in least-developed countries. Investing in young people, thus, creates a pathway for accelerated development.

Likewise, too many women, too often, die giving life. The statisticians say one dies every 90 seconds. This year, an estimated 5.8 million new-borns will die before reaching their first birthday. The risk is greatest for women in poor countries and for poor women in all countries.

A paramount challenge of this century is to meet the needs of 7 billion humans — and the billions to come — while protecting the intricate balance of nature that sustains life as demands for water, food and fossil fuels will only increase with the growth in population. 

An increased global population will affect us all, so it is in everyone’s interest to do something about it. In this context, providing quality reproductive health care and other economic and social encouragements for safe motherhood is the most cost-effective strategy. 

Similarly, investing in women and girls is cost-effective and essential to solving the world’s most challenging problem —‘gender imbalance’—because when women are healthy and educated and can participate fully in society, they trigger progress in their families, communities and nations. In light of this historic moment, it is time to take socially positive actions in our communities and around the world for a healthy and sustainable world. Everyone has an opportunity and a responsibility to make a world of 7 billion a better place for all.




Author: Rajendra P Sharma

Chief Executive Director, Rural Urban Development Foundation

Posted and Published on: OP-ED, The Kathmandu Post, 2011-11-03 09:11

Link the page as it appeared in the Kathmandu Post: 

http://epaper.ekantipur.com/ktpost/showtext.aspx?boxid=2049906&parentid=14301&issuedate=3112011

Talk of The Town

Talk of The Town

 RAJENDRA P SHARMA         Bookmark

The role of cities in producing climate change, the impact of climate disruption on cities and what cities are doing about it has been at the centre of this year’s discourse on urbanisation. As our world grows predominantly urban, we should reflect on how we can make our cities better and smarter places to live in. Smart cities recognise the importance of good governance that can help to mitigate climate change by promoting energy conservation and environmental sustainability measures.   

Urbanisation offers many opportunities to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies to deal with climate change. Given that the highest global energy consumption occurs in cities, roughly half of it from burning fossil fuels for urban transport, the solution seems obvious. This is due to the fact that the economies of scale produced by the concentration of economic activities in cities also make it cheaper and easier to take action to minimise both emissions and climate hazards. 

The social, economic and political actors within cities must, therefore, become key players in developing these strategies. Many towns and cities, especially in developing countries, are still grappling with climate change strategies, working out how to access international climate change funding and how to learn from pioneering cities. Experts predict that by the year 2050, the global population will have increased by 50 per cent from what it was in 1999. Also by that time, global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs) must decrease by 50 per cent compared to levels at the turn of the millennium. We can take this as the “three 50s challenge”. 

As there is a significant contribution of cities to climate change, the greatest challenge currently being faced by humanity is the linkage between urbanisation and climate change. Climate-induced risks such as rising sea levels, tropical cyclones, heavy precipitation events and extreme weather conditions can disrupt the basic fabric and functioning of cities with widespread reverberations for the physical infrastructure, economy and social life. Prevention can be greatly enhanced through better land-use planning and building codes so that cities ensure their residents, especially the poorest, are protected as best as possible against diasters — be it drought, floods or other calamities. 

The UN-HABITAT’s Report 2011 reveals the shocking finding that GHGEs in cities account for up to 70 per cent of the world’s pollution, much of it coming from fossil fuel consumption. In Nepal, the rapid growth of population in urban and peri-urban areas that have economic consequences of an estimated loss of over US$ 140 million annually in terms of health expenses and loss of productivity. The country has been urbanising rapidly with high rates of rural-urban migration. 

Since 1700, the global population growth has been going up; and throughout the last 50 years, it has been unprecedented. Today’s population trend raises the question how a population of 7 billion will affect the rest of the century. It has been projected that the population will reach 8 billion in 2025 and 9 billion in 2043. Nepal’s case is slightly different as the preliminary result of the 2011 census revealed that the population of Nepal stands at 26.6 million, adding 3.45 million at an average growth rate of 1.40 per cent during the last 10 years, with  Kathmandu being the most dense city (4,408) and Manang the least dense (3). Urban population constitutes about 17 per cent of the total and shows an increasing trend. Among urban areas, Kathmandu Metropolis has a population of 1,006,656 and Dhulikhel has the lowest population of 16,406. Likewise, the rural population decreased from 86 per cent in 2001 to 83 percent in 2011.  

Those who want to know what city life will be like in the future should not look at rich, well run mega cities like Tokyo, because cities like Kathmandu are not comparable with them in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. The International Institute of Environment and Development has compared the per capita emissions in 100 of the world’s great cities, and revealed that over 80 per cent of the world’s GHGs come from cities and city dwellers.

There are many ways to reduce energy consumption in cities. A modern,urban building spends 80 to 90 per cent of its energy budget on cooling, heating, ventilation, lighting and appliances. In cold climates, better insulation of walls, roofs, floors and windows is essential. Energy-efficient appliances and lighting solutions, such as skylights, automated lighting and low-energy bulbs make a huge difference. Also, lighting accounts for around 17 per cent of global energy consumption. In these circumstances, the next step is to generate power locally, because by going off-grid we will not lose energy in transmission. Further, if we make our houses energy efficient, only 3 per cent of the waste goes to landfill sites.  

The government of Nepal has developed a national plan of action on climate change adaptation that identifies promising mitigation and adaptation measures to support more sustainable and resilient urban development. In addition, Nepal’s urban development programme reflects the government’s commitment to achieve significant improvement in the lives of slum dwellers in line with the Millennium Development Goals, municipal urban planning and promotion of urban safety and conviviality in public spaces. 

In this new urban era, we must bear in mind that the greatest impact of disasters resulting from climate change begins and ends in cities. Cities have a great influence on climate change. This gives us opportunities because cities with people, industry and infrastructure can provide the best solutions when it comes to reducing GHGEs, improving coping mechanisms and reducing vulnerability to the impacts of climate disruption. Therefore, it is time to reaffirm our commitment to a more sustainable future, with greater attention to climate change in cities and beyond.

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Posted on: Kathmandu post: 2011-10-18 08:23

Author: Rajendra P Sharma

Sharma is a consultant at Urban-Rural Development and associated with the Centre for Development Studies in Kathmandu

Urban Authorities Need To Come Out Of The Box

Over the last few decades, Nepal in general and Kathmandu Valley in particular has witnessed a remarkable change in land use due to rapid growth of the population. The urban growth among the municipal towns varies greatly. The Kathmandu Valley had 67 per cent agricultural land in 1971 that declined to 14 per cent in 2001, whilst residential-cum-commercial use increased from 14 per cent to 61 percent during the same years. The distribution of urban areas is relatively thin over the mountains and hills due to rugged terrain and scattered settlements. Out of 100 municipalities, most are in the Terai and the hills with very few in the mountains. Apart from the municipalities, there are over 3,500 small towns across the country.  The population also varies greatly by municipalities; Kathmandu metropolis and four other sub-metropolises accommodate 39 per cent of the total urban population, other 35 municipalities accommodate about 27 per cent and the other small municipalities lodge the rest. Over the last decades, the larger cities have been expanded rapidly and haphazardly and urban-bound migration has gone up significantly putting an additional pressure on poor urban infrastructure, services and limited land for settlement. Rapid urbanization coupled with inadequate government response to the urban needs has led to the poor service in the towns. The fundamental feature of the municipalities can be described as ‘urban villages’. Little efforts Planned development efforts in Nepal started from the late 1950s. The country till now has experienced ten national development plans and two subsequent interim plans. Since the first plan (1956-61), the development strategy has always been to increase gross domestic product and create infrastructure necessary for development and to alleviate poverty. Throughout these planning periods, the rural area has always received top priority in development policies and programs and particularly the tenth plan adopted poverty reduction strategy, especially to address the problems of the poor. Despite these varieties of planning efforts there is a poor performance in achieving expected results; a wide gap remains between a few rich people and the majority of poor, who have been left out of the development process. This has occurred mainly due to the mismatch between development programmes and ground realities, limited resources, among many. Throughout the six decades of planned development efforts, urban development has been overlooked. Opportunities Urban development basically concerns two fundamental components of peaceful living conditions of the urban dwellers. Safe and conducive working environment, entertainment and life without fear and harm and equal access for all citizens to the services and facilities. This also means to be free from ethnic, religious or gender discrimination. Since urban centers are growth and employment hubs, they influence the surrounding areas by attracting people, goods and capital. Thus, the flow of goods, workforce, capital and information describes the degree of relationship between the urban and surrounding rural centers. Flows of goods, raw materials and people as workforce can be considered as ‘inputs’ to contribute to urban development whilst infrastructure, facilities, and services available in the urban areas facilitate the ‘outputs’ and strengthen linkages. The potential of urban development is determined by the facilities and services available at the centers, because the urban areas are also considered as centers of knowledge, innovation and technology. In fact, making urban areas dynamic focal points in terms of resource potentials and hubs of investment may have spread effects over the entire region and also enhance national growth and development. Similarly, urban centers are also known as growth centers and a proxy indicator for both local and national development. They provide facilities and services for the development of one’s own area and the surroundings. A strong economic base of the urban area leads to surplus production of goods and services in terms of commercial, industrial, agricultural and other activities. The number, size and type of facilities and urban services determine the level of development. Challenges The major challenges in urban development are governance, inclusivity and participatory sustainable development with the optimum exploitation of the limited resources. In the changed socio-political context, mmunicipalities are local government units; they need to be centres of economic development but the pace of development is slow and administrative function is the priority. The governance is also weak due to the lack of human and financial resources for infrastructure development and service delivery. Municipal governments are directed by two line ministries - Ministry of Local Development and Ministry of Physical Planning and Works. The Kathmandu Valley Town Development Committee and Town Development Fund are other government agencies involved in municipal physical development in case of Kathmandu. Provision of infrastructure in urban areas has been largely driven by central government such as the Department of Roads, Water Supply and Sewerage, Solid Waste, Telephone, and Electricity. Besides these, there are several other agencies including non-government, international agencies, civil society and user groups involved in urban development. Since urban government has to interface with all these agencies, the main challenge is ‘coordination’. In the changed political context, the municipal government requires to redefine its roles and responsibilities with broader perspectives that should incorporate better service provision and employment generation. Further, the municipality is to facilitate people-based, transparent and output oriented development activities propped up by user-friendly participatory monitoring and evaluation system. The urban service delivery institutions are engrossed in the conservative feudal system and are not poor-oriented. Therefore, mechanisms should be set up to empower the urban dwellers in general and civil societies in particular and to impart awareness among the urban service delivery authorities. The lack of financial resources is a critical constraint and challenge. The revenue structure of the municipalities indicates that they depend largely on Local Development Fee (LDF) and grants, which means they are weak in mobilizing local revenue. LDF is against the spirit of the World Trade Organization (WTO), and therefore, it should be abolished. But, if LDF is abolished, municipalities may face further financial crisis. The seventh Goal of the Millennium Development Goals calls for a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers by 2020. In order to achieve this target, it is important to grant security of tenure, investing more in housing. These challenges are becoming more complex due to increased in-migrants. On the other hand, in most cases, greenery, open spaces and playgrounds in the urban areas have been encroached by street vendors, squatters and used as residence and market-places due to poor governance and management. The public-private partnership for socio-economic development initiatives and service delivery is a far cry. Therefore, a fundamental challenge is to change the traditional, complex bureaucratic and feudal governance that has existed for decades which demands a revolutionary step. Indeed, the capability of urban government for good governance is inadequate and there is a big resource gap. The municipal efforts are often to meet quantity coverage; the quality standard is far behind. In order to meet the current need and MDG goals by 2015, the government’s investment needs to rise several folds. There is a lack of competence and commitment in municipal government for the adoption of holistic approach to manage urban areas. Therefore, challenges ahead are the lack of fiscal power, adoption of customer friendly attitude and enforcement of existing laws to develop urban schemes and manage urban affairs. Way forward Urban areas are favourable for development interventions supported by large population size, basic infrastructure and accessibilities. Urban agencies including municipality should be aware of and convinced with the inclusive development and participatory approaches and modalities should be clear for all the collaborative partners for the management of urban affairs. If the needy groups of people are involved in the programmes, they will be able to manage the local problems. The urban government should conceive this concept and include in its policies, strategies and plan so that the entire planning and implementation system comes into practice that will help to achieve the overall goal of urban development. For this, a strong commitment, vision and collaboration among all walks of life and society, more importantly the urban governments, is essential. Further, public-private partnership for socio-economic development and service delivery is important for making municipal government competent, committed and customer friendly. Therefore, shifting the paradigm from most neglected to most selected area for development, a better management of urban affairs with a better provision of infrastructure, facilities and urban governance with the devolution of fiscal power is an urgent need. Furthermore, urban management should be concerned in the fundamental components of safe, just, and better management by bringing municipal governments out of the box from the traditional, complex, bureaucratic and feudal governance system to simple, transparent and responsible governance system. A better management of urban affairs in Nepal is possible if the municipal governments take steps towards strengthening urban governance backed by participation, empowerment, urban database and participatory approaches in municipal planning and governance system. The article was posted and published on : The Rising Nepal http://www.gorkhapatra.org.np/gopa.detail.php?article_id=54840&cat_id=10 Author: Rajendra P Sharma Chief Executive Director Rural Urban Development Foundation

Dealing With Urban Poverty Reaching Out To Hard-To-Reach

Nepal’s urban population growth rate exceeds the rural growth of population and the overall national population growth. At present, Kathmandu Valley alone shares half of the urban population of Nepal. The annual growth rate of population in Kathmandu Valley is over 25 per cent and it continues unabated due to many reasons. The rapid growth of population in the valley has created tremendous pressure both in demand and service delivery side by side. Over the past decade, there has been a sharp increase of slum and squatter settlements, which are mostly located in city core areas, particularly on the banks of famous religious and cultural rivers Bagmati and Bishnumati. These populations are often reported to be living in poor conditions with meagre basic services. On the other hand, Nepal’s focus till now is on strengthening the rural services. The provisions of credible and functional service delivery in urban areas, especially for the marginalised and urban disadvantaged people, are in a critical challenge. Moreover, there is paucity of evidence and the practices of the urban poor, particularly the poor living in the slum areas. In this context, the majority of the poor families belong to marginalized group followed by relatively advantaged group. On an average, a poor family has six members while the non-poor family has five members. These families live in overcrowded, inadequate and insecure housing. The poor families live in abject living conditions as compared to the average urban dwellers. They live in overcrowded rooms, 3.2 persons per room as compared to 2.5 persons in case of non-poor families. Poverty and urban life In many slum and squatter settlements in the urban areas of Nepal, many of the poor families live on land without having any land certificate and are engaged in labour work. In today’s’ changing demographic conditions a huge number of mobile families are in search of cheaper accommodation and livelihood in the urban centres. The poor people’s access to basic services clearly reflects relative deprivation and urban social divide. On the whole, many families - either rental or the non-rental - do not have toilet facilities. Even those who have toilets discard the wastes directly in the rivers. Many of the urban dwellers are relying on kerosene followed by LP gas for cooking. Owing to vulnerable living conditions, the urban population, especially the Kathmanduites, are unsafe in terms of their health. Overall, under five year, one in twenty children is suffering from significant illness. There are so many unmet needs relating to basic provisions. Similarly, the HIV and AIDS are now coming up as a major health and social problem in the urban centres. There are a number of barriers in accessing and utilizing the services by the poor. The key barriers include economic indebtedness of the poor families, lack of organized social networks, negative attitudes of the service providers at the service outlets, low level of awareness in regard to the free treatment schemes and procedures while applying for free or subsidized treatment at the government hospitals and the subsequent hassles in receiving these services, and gaps in services delivery. Financial vulnerability is linked with poor access to the services. The average health spending by the poor family per year is higher than the per capita family income per year. It again indicates the relative vulnerability of the poor families living in the urban areas. In many families, the lack of financial resources has often resulted in a significant proportion of the poor families taking loans or borrowing money from unorganized sectors particularly from the personal and family networks. Challenges Despite the policy of extending services, the service providers’ negative attitude and behaviour towards the clients are frequently reported by the media. In this context, the new government of Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal should have a clear vision, mission and plan with an inclusive and participatory approach, so that people of urban centres will feel the changes. Dealing with urban poverty, reaching out to hard-to-reach or really poor and excluded group of people is challenging. But it is possible, if taken care of by mapping out the multiple-faced poverty including its impacts. The review of on-going government policies and schemes is equally important. And the government needs to ensure functional coordination, implementation and monitoring mechanisms, with inclusive and participatory approach in development interventions that guarantees local participation. Further, to design and implement the interventions with a clear focus on poverty and inclusion, it is essential to initiate immediate and long term measures for people friendly services at all levels. The monetary approach alone may not be sufficient in measuring the impacts of urban poverty and dealing with it. Therefore, a comprehensive review and redefinition of urban poverty is necessary. In the same line, incorporation of urban poverty as cross cutting issue in all development interventions at all level is also important to make programme cycle as well as development intervention pro-poor and achieve equitable impacts. Author: Rajendra P Sharma Chief Executive Director, Rural Urban Development Foundation Published on The Rising Nepal, Friday Supplement Link: http://www.gorkhapatra.org.np/gopa.detail.php?article_id=57031&cat_id=10